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Projecting Adult and Older People Populations and Needs

Two websites have been developed and supported by the Department of Health Care Services Efficiency Delivery (CSED) Programme, with the Institute of Public Care, Oxford Brookes University, with the aim of giving easy access to forecasts of the numbers, charactersitics and needs of adults and older people by locality.

  • PANSI - (Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information) - provides information on the population aged 18 to 64
  • POPPI - (Projecting Older People Population Information System) - provides information on the population aged 65 and over

These sites are designed to bring together relevant information for council planners and commissioners of adult social care, and to provide a consistent starting point for examining the needs of adults and older people within the JSNA framework. They use forecasts based on the 2001 Census and current trends and therefore do not predict "expected" outcomes. Registration is required to view the information.

Active Health annual report 2013/14

Active Health is a programme that enables and encourages healthcare professionals including GPs to refer patients to leisure and physical activity services as part of their healthcare.  Referrals include Phase IV Cardiac Rehabilitation, Strength & Balance, Falls prevention and Exercise After Stroke as well as general referrals. The annual report describes the population being referred and the progress they make along with the changes the programme has gone through since  last year.

The Wiltshire Council health trainer programme was introduced in January 2014 following the success of health trainers working in HMP Erlestoke and for Wiltshire Probation Trust, Community First and Wiltshire Addiction Support Project (WASP).

Those engaging with the service are empowered to take more responsibility for improving their own physical and emotional wellbeing by working with a dedicated health trainer to set goals to improve general wellbeing, increasing confidence and motivation to enable them to change. Health trainers support clients to increase physical activity levels; to eat healthier food often linked to weight loss; to reduce or stop smoking or to drink less alcohol.

Over six sessions, health trainers meet clients in public places (including libraries, leisure centres and children’s centres) in order to provide them with regular tailored support and information to help them change negative behaviours and achieve their personal health improvement goals. Further to this, health trainers work closely with partners to ensure clients are effectively signposted to specialist services for additional targeted support, where appropriate.

This report provides a review of the Wiltshire Council health trainer programme during its first year of operation.

Health Impact of Physical Inactivity (HIPI) tool

Regular physical activity has substantial health benefits, yet only a minority (approximately 21%) of the population in England achieve the minimum levels as recommended by the four home countries’ Chief Medical Officers, in their Start Active, Stay Active report.

The newly launched Health Impact of Physical Inactivity (HIPI) tool estimates how many excess deaths and cases of certain diseases could be prevented in each local authority in England, if the population (aged 40-79) were to engage in recommended amounts of physical activity.

The tool has been produced by a working group including the South West Public Health Observatory (SWPHO), Sustrans, National Obesity Observatory, Bristol City Council and the South West Public Health Training Scheme.

This first release (March 2013) includes the following health impacts:

  • preventable cases of diabetes (only shown for Counties and Unitary Authorities)

  • preventable emergency admissions to hospital with a coronary heart disease

  • preventable new cases of breast and colon cancer

  • total number of preventable deaths (all causes).

Users can select geographical areas from a map or list.  The data is also provided in a downloadable excel spreadsheet.

The press release accompanying the launch can be downloaded here.

Healthy Lives on-line atlas

The online ‘Healthier Lives Atlas Tool’ was launched by Public Health England on 30th October 2014 (and updated on the 9th of December 2014) and follows on from the earlier release of the ‘Longer Lives Tool’ that concentrated on premature mortality.  It draws together a total of 62 indicators relating to Diabetes, Hypertension, Drugs and Alcohol and NHS Health Checks (already available in mechanisms such as the QOF, PHOF, National Diabetes Audit) in order to assess performance against these measures at Local Authority, CCG levels and GP Practice levels.

The online tool can be accessed via the Public Health England Website and a number of interactive maps are available that enable users to visualise comparative area performance across England for each specific indicator. Although the functionality to download excel files is built into the tool, unlike more recent PHE profile tools, the ability to download an overall area profile as a PDF does not currently exist.

Users are able to view whether local performance is ‘Worse’, ‘Consistent’ or ‘Better’ compared to relevant England averages using a RAG rating by accessing the‘National Comparisons’  link under each thematic heading.  The tool also offers users the opportunity to compare key risk and prevalence factors specific to each measure (including obesity levels, physical inactivity and deprivation) in terms of a ‘low’ to ‘high’ rating against other Local Authority, CCG or GP Practice areas. 

Although the functionality to download excel files is built into the tool, unlike more recent PHE profile tools, the ability to download an overall area profile as a PDF does not currently exist. 

It should be noted that data has been drawn from multiple sources and therefore comparator time periods may vary. Details relating to the specific time period covered and data sources used can be quickly viewed in pop up boxes on the interactive maps once a geographical area has been selected.  A video tutorial explaining how to get the best out of the ‘Healthier Lives’ tool is contained in the ‘About the Data’ section.  

INHALE (Interactive Health Atlas for Lung Conditions in England) is an online respiratory disease data tool that was launched by Public Health England in December 2014. 

It draws together a total of 61 indicators predominantly relating to COPD (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease) and Asthma (already available in mechanisms such as the QOF and PHOF) in order to assess performance against these measures at CCG level.   

The profiles are available on the Public Health England Website and the indicators are presented according to the following domains

  • COPD Indicators

  • Asthma Indicators

  • Prevention

  • Diagnosis

  • Management

  • Outcome

  • Cost

Due to the way the domains have been derived, some of the indicators appear under more than one of the domain headings. 

Users are able to generate a range of overview tables, maps and charts that enable geographical and trend based comparisons of indicator performance as well as the ability to benchmark this performance against both regional and England averages.  

Although the functionality to download excel files is available, unlike more recent PHE profile tools, the ability to download an overall CCG area profile as a PDF does not currently exist.  Local CCG area profiles under the seven headings listed above can however be viewed on the website. 

It should be noted that data has been drawn from multiple sources and therefore comparator time periods may vary. Details relating to the specific time period covered, data sources used as well as any caveats that need to be considered when using and interpreting the data at individual indicator level are contained in the definitions section.

The NEoLCIN have produced End of Life Care Local Authority Profiles 2012 present over 50 indicators for each local authority in England.

There are indicators that can be used to predict need:

  • population

  • deaths

and to look at current patterns of care:

  • place of death
  • cause of death
  • deaths in hospital
  • care homes
  • social care.

The Wiltshire profiles can be downloaded below. To view the other profiles and for further information visit the End of Life Care Profiles website and read the associated flyer.

End of Life care profiles for Clinical Commissioning Groups

The NEoLCIN has published end of life care profiles for clinical commissioning groups (CCGs). The profiles draw together a wide range of information to give an overview of variations in cause and place of death, by age and sex, for each CCG in England.

The profiles will help commissioners and providers of end of life care get a clearer picture of the end of life care needs of their local populations. They will help with the planning and delivery of services and will support drives locally towards improving end of life care.

In total, there are 170 indicators, presented in four separate tools, using Office for National Statistics mortality data from 2010 to 2012. Data can be viewed in the following ways:

  • interactive map showing a single indicator and enabling comparison with CCGs across England

  • spine chart showing multiple indicators for each CCG comparing to the minimum, maximum and average values for England

The profiles are available from http://www.endoflifecare-intelligence.org.uk/end_of_life_care_profiles/  

This needs assessment has been complied by the Wiltshire Community Safety Partnership in line with National Treatment Agency guidance to assess the Adult Drug Treatment needs of Wiltshire. The assessment informs the Adult Drug Treatment Plan 2012/13, as well as the wider Joint Strategic Needs Assessment.

View the Adult Drug Treatment Needs Assessment 2012/2013 here

HMP Erlestoke Substance Misuse Needs Assessment 2012/13

This document is produced by Wiltshire Community Safety Partnership and is available to download here.

The South East Public Health Observatory (SEPHO) has updated the Cardiovascular Disease Profiles for England, the third release of these profiles.

The profiles allow comparison across regions and local areas against a number of indicators, including: prevention, incidence, mortality, and treatments.  They are available for every upper tier local authority in England, along with summary profiles for the strategic clinical networks that come into force from April 2013.  The profile data is easily accessible online via the SEPHO website, along with an interactive Atlas tool, which allows for more direct comparison between different areas.

The Wiltshire profile can be downloaded here.

The National Cardiovascular Intelligence Network (NCVIN) published on the 5th of August 2014 CVD profiles for every Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) in England. The profiles are currently available to all and there is an intention to put the data into the Public Health England Fingertips tool. They are primarily intended to provide better access to data and information to support people involved in commissioning, planning and providing services locally.

The tools bring together a wide range of publicly available data to offer a broad picture of cardiovascular disease, the underlying risk factors and diseases which cause and complicate the management of people with CVD. The tools enable and advocate benchmarking against peers. For the majority of indicators there is a comparison with the 10 most similar CCGs, CCGs in the same Strategic Clinical Network and England. The core aim is to provide information for improvement, not judgement.

The pdfs below are the CVD profiles for Wiltshire CCG.

Wiltshire Stop Smoking Service data report

Smoking is the primary cause of premature death in the UK and accounted for 80,000 deaths in 2011 in England alone.  It is also associated with the development of long term conditions including Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), various forms of cancer as well as Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) including coronary heart disease and stroke.

Although the prevalence of smoking is declining in Wiltshire (16.7% of adults are smokers), it remains the biggest cause of premature death in the county with around 650 deaths from smoking related causes being recorded each year.  Local smoking cessation interventions such as the Wiltshire Council ‘Stop Smoking Service’ (freely available to any smoker living in Wiltshire wanting to give up) are therefore vital in improving the overall health of the population.

Using data collected by the Wiltshire Stop Smoking Service, the Wiltshire Stop Smoking 2013/14 data report provides in depth analysis of annual numbers accessing the service in terms of age, gender and occupation in order to assess levels of service engagement.  Analysis has also been provided according to intervention type and quit rate to identify any trends or issues that may warrant further investigation.

The Local Tobacco Control Profiles for English Local Authorities provide a snapshot of the extent of tobacco use, tobacco related harm, and measures being taken to reduce this harm at a local level.  These profiles have been designed to help local government and health services to assess the effect of tobacco use on local populations.  They will inform commissioning and planning decisions to tackle tobacco use and improve the health of local communities.

The tool allows comparisons between local authorities in the same region and benchmarking against the England average.

What’s new in the tool in May 2015?

  • Data on lung and oral cancer registrations has been added for the period 2010-2012. Cost per capita of smoking attributable hospital admissions data has been added for 2011/12.
  • New scatterplot functionality has been enabled to allow comparison of data for two indicators, including trend lines. The ability to link to specific indicators and/or local authorities has also been added.

Wiltshire’s profile is available below:

For more information and profiles for other areas visit the Local Tobacco Control profiles website

Alcohol use has health and social consequences borne by individuals, their families, and the wider community. The Local Alcohol Profiles for England (LAPE) provide information for local government, health organisations, commissioners and other agencies to monitor the impact of alcohol on local communities, and to monitor the services and initiatives that have been put in place to prevent and reduce the harmful impact of alcohol.

On the 2nd of June 2015 the LAPE were updated with a new web-tool.

A downloaded version of the 2015 profile can be found below.

In contrast with most EU countries, death rates from liver disease are increasing in England. Between 2001 and 2012 the number of people who died with an underlying cause of liver disease in England rose by 40% (from 7,841 to 10,948). 

The online ‘Liver Disease Profile Tool’ was launched by Public Health England in October 2014.  It collates and analyses a wide range of publicly available data and has been developed to foster an intelligence led approach to the work of Health and Wellbeing Boards in shaping local interventions to target and prevent liver disease. The profiles are available on the Public Health England Website and a total of 28 indicators associated with liver disease as a result of alcohol, obesity and viral hepatitis are grouped by Local Authority area.

The Wiltshire Liver Disease profile can be downloaded here:

On the 8th of June 2015 Macmillan and the National Cancer Intelligence Network (NCIN) published a suite of outputs designed to estimate prevalence of cancer for a 20 year period. This was performed by exploring the incidence of cancer for the last available 20 year period and removing all individuals who passed away before the 31st of December 2010. A guidance document has been made available.

Varying geographies have been included in the output files from UK down to Clinical Commissioning Group and Local Authority level. Figures for all major cancer sites have been presented and gender breakdowns have also been provided along with a series of historic prevalence timeframes up to the full 20 year point. Additionally, age and deprivation analysis has been presented at the national level but not at lower geographies.

Diabetes profile

Diabetes Health Intelligence at Yorkshire and Humber Public Health Observatory (YHPHO) has published an updated version of the Diabetes Prevalence Model.  The model revises the APHO Diabetes Prevalence Model published in 2010 and estimates the total (diagnosed and undiagnosed) number of people with diabetes by local authority now and in the future.  It is estimated that by 2030 over 4 million people in England will have diabetes.  It also assesses the extent to which rising levels of obesity are likely to be responsible for the increasing prevalence of diabetes.

The report on diabetes prevalence in Wiltshire can be downloaded here:

http://www.yhpho.org.uk/diabetesprevtable/pdfs/E06000054_Diabetes_Prevalence_profile.pdf

Further information about the diabetes prevalence model can be found here:

http://www.yhpho.org.uk/resource/view.aspx?RID=154049

More information about diabetes in general can also been found from the YHPHO website

http://www.yhpho.org.uk/default.aspx?RID=102616

The NHS Kidney Care CCG Profiles

East Midlands Public Health Observatory has published the NHS Kidney Care CCG Profiles for all 211 CCGs.  These are intended to help CCGs and other stakeholders assess local kidney care need and current service levels in order to inform planning.

The profiles contain information for each CCG on:

  • Observed and expected number of people with chronic kidney disease

  • Clinical management and achievement of chronic kidney disease, and kidney disease risk factors

  • Demographic characteristics and predictive factors for kidney disease

  • Prevalence of the risk factors for kidney disease

  • Acute kidney injury

  • Local kidney unit factors and figures

  • Cost of chronic kidney disease

The NHS Wiltshire CCG profile is available to download here

Further information and profiles for all areas can be found at: http://www.kidneycare.nhs.uk/CCG_profiles

Not everyone with an Sexually Transmitted Infection (STI) will have signs and symptoms of the condition. If a person does present with symptoms, these may include increased discharge, pain or ulcers. If the STIs are left undetected and untreated they may result in serious complications in later years. The role of the Health Protection Agency (HPA) is to contribute to protecting the population from infection through routine surveillance, modelling, epidemiological investigation and research.

Public Health England (PHE) collects data on sexual health services & STI diagnosed in genito-urinary medicine (GUM) services & other clinical & community-based settings in England. The data provide information on trends in STI diagnoses, including numbers & rates of diagnoses by various demographic characteristics & geographical distribution. They also provide trends on the provision of GUM services, including sexual health screening & vaccinations.

For more information visit the Sexually transmitted infections page on the HPA website.

The Sexual Health and Reproductive Health Profiles online tool has been developed by Public Health England in order to support local authorities and Public Health professionals to monitor the sexual and reproductive health of their population and the contribution of local and public health related systems. It was first released in April 2014.

The profiles are available online in various formats including interactive maps, charts and tables. These provide a snapshot of sexual and reproductive health over a variety of aspects including teenage pregnancy, abortions, contraception, HIV, sexually transmitted infections and sexual offences. In addition wider influences on sexual health are also available. These include alcohol use, and other topics particularly relating to teenage conceptions such as education and deprivation level.

The Wiltshire sexual and reproductive profile can be downloaded here:

Excess winter deaths atlas

The West Midlands Public Health Observatory (WMPHO) has updated the Excess Winter Deaths in England Atlas.  The Excess Winter Deaths Atlas is available at:

http://www.wmpho.org.uk/excesswinterdeathsinenglandatlas/?

This interactive mapping tool allows the user to view excess winter deaths data in England with the facility to drill down to local authorities to access:

  • Single and three year rolling trend data from 1990-2011

  • Excess winter deaths by selected age groups

  • Excess winter deaths by selected condition (underlying causes of death)

The good news in Wiltshire is that the three year index has reduced from 22.6% in 2007-2010 to 20.5% in 2008-2011 whilst the index for England has risen over the same period.   The single year figures show an even greater improvement from a high of 28.7% in 2008/09 to 15.7% in 2010/11, where the Wiltshire index is now less than the England index (17.0%).

In statistical terms it should be noted that at no time has Wiltshire been significantly different to the England index on either the single or three year measure.  Nor is Wiltshire statistically significantly different for any of the age or condition indices.

There is strong evidence that the needs of blind and partially sighted people and the eye health of local populations must be planned for the future. This document pulls together key information, statistics and research to support Wiltshire Council, Public Health and Commissioners when planning current and future services.

The document has been produced by RNIB (Royal National Institute of Blind People), Wiltshire Blind Association, and Action for Blind people, on behalf of WVSAG (Wiltshire Vision Strategy Action Group) a working group made up of blind and partially sighted people and professionals from social care, health and from the third sector.

VIPER 2012 provides local authority level data covering hospital admissions for violence, police recorded violent crime, data on suicide and sexual assaults and other relevant indicators. It also includes violence-related accident and emergency (A&E) data for all local authorities. Alongside the profiles, VIPER includes information on what works to prevent violence as outlined in the recent Department of Health and NHS publication Protecting people, Promoting health; A public health approach to violence prevention in England.

The 2012 Violence Indicator Profiles for each local authority in England are now available at www.eviper.org.uk.

Mental Health Dementia and Neurology profiles

These profiling tools are available to all. They are primarily intended to provide better access to data and information to support people involved in commissioning, planning and providing services locally. The tools bring together a wide range of publicly available data to offer a broad picture of mental health dementia and neurology and provide the means to focus on specific topic areas. The tools enable and advocate benchmarking against peers. The core aim is to provide information for improvement, not judgement.

Overview tables, maps, trend charts, comparison bar graphs and spine charts along with downloadable excel files and detailed definitions of each indicator are all provided in the tool. The profiles are often able to split the data by geographic area and deprivation quintiles. Unlike many other profiles an indication has been given as to the data quality for many of the indicators. This is a useful addition to guide users. There are four profile tools to view each with 2 to 6 baskets of indicators. Two of the profiles have printable CCG area snapshots.

Common Mental Health Disorders-www.phoutcomes.info/profile-group/mental-health/profile/common-mental-disorders 

This tool presents collated risk, prevalence, early intervention, assessment and treatment, outcomes and service costs data relating to people with common mental health disorders, including depression and anxiety disorders.

Severe Mental Illness-www.phoutcomes.info/profile-group/mental-health/profile/severe-mental-illness

This tool presents collated risk, prevalence, early intervention, assessment and treatment, outcomes and service costs data relating to people with severe mental illness. It also provides a set of high level indicators that relate to the psychosis care pathway.

Community Mental Health Profiles-www.phoutcomes.info/profile-group/mental-health/profile/cmhp 

These Profiles pull together a range of mental health data at CCG level and are principally intended to support local needs assessment, policy, planning, performance management, surveillance and practice. No LA level data has been provided.

A printable version of the profile is available for Wiltshire.

Neurology Profiles-www.phoutcomes.info/profile-group/mental-health/profile/neurology

These Profiles illustrate health statistics around emergency hospital admissions for twelve common neurological conditions and a more detailed analysis of an epilepsy care pathway. No LA level data has been provided.

A printable version of the profile is available for Wiltshire.

Suicide Prevention Profiles- http://fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile-group/mental-health/profile/suicide 

These profiles have been produced to help develop understanding at a local level and support an intelligence driven approach to suicide prevention. It collates and presents a range of publically available data on suicide, associated prevalence, risk factors, and service contact among groups at increased risk. It provides planners, providers and stakeholders with the means to profile their area and benchmark against similar populations.

Co-existing substance misuse and mental health issues Profiling tool- http://fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile-group/mental-health/profile/drugsandmentalhealth

This tool has been developed to support an intelligence-driven approach to understanding and meeting need. It collates and analyses a wide range of publically available data around tobacco smoking, alcohol use and drug use, including data on prevalence, risk factors, treatment demand and treatment response. It provides commissioners, service providers, clinicians, service users and their families with the means to benchmark their area against other areas.

Community mental health profile for Wiltshire

The Community mental health profiles provide robust health intelligence to help inform commissioners of information they need to make decisions to improve mental health services at a local level as well as comparing patterns of mental health needs and service use at a local, regional, and national level.

The individual local authority profiles comprise of 31 indicators covering the following themes:

  • Wider determinants of health

  • Risk factors

  • Levels of mental health and illness

  • TreatmentOutcomes (new)

Mental health is high on the government’s agenda.  A new mental health strategy was released in 2011 “No health without Mental Health.  The strategy takes a cross government approach and the indicators included in these profiles have been specifically selected to reflect this.

The Wiltshire profile is available here:

Profiles for other areas and more information is available on the NEPHO website.

The G.P. patient survey is an independent survey run by Ipsos MORI on behalf of, and commissioned by, N.H.S. England. The survey was first issued in 2007 and is sent out twice a year, in January and July, and the core of the questionnaire was developed by Ipsos MORI in conjunction with the University of Exeter Medical School and the General Practice and Primary Care Research Unit at the University of Cambridge.

The survey has been designed to give patients the opportunity to comment on their experience of their G.P. practice. The survey asks about experiences of a patient’s local G.P. surgery and other local NHS services, and includes questions about the patient’s general health. The survey includes questions about a range of issues, such as how easy or difficult it is for patients to make an appointment at their surgery, satisfaction with opening hours, the quality of care received from their G.P. and practice nurses, amongst other things.

Replies to the survey will help surgeries understand where improvements are needed. This survey is an opportunity for patients to have their say about how well their practice is doing at providing these services to patients.

The latest G.P. patient survey data are from the July 2014 publication, collected during July-September 2013 and January-March 2014 can be accessed online.

The report based on the July 2014 publication can be accessed below.

Health Needs Assessment of 3(UK) Division

The Army conducted a Strategic Health Needs Assessment of 3(UK) Division in 2011/12.  3 (UK) Division is headquarters is in Picton Barracks, Bulford, Wiltshire with 4 subordinates brigades, 2 of which are located within or adjacent to Wiltshire (Bulford and Tidworth).  The population of 3(UK) Division is considered to be largely representative of the British Army.

The report highlights 6 main areas which affect the health and wellbeing of the average soldier within the division (environment, weight management, nutrition, accommodation, smoking and alcohol).

The assessment is available below to download:
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